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Machine-based decision-making is coming

Machine-based decision-making is coming

By:  Patrick Thibodeau  On: 09 Nov 2011 For: ComputerWorld (US) Creator

Taking partiality and compensation bonus considerations out of the equation will lead to better decisions, a Gartner analyst says

There may come a day when computers take over the business decision-making process.

Machines' unbiased assessments of data will replace managers' gut instincts and the knowledge they gain from experience and professional relationships, not to mention the financial incentive they have for making the right call, according to Gartner analyst Nigel Rayner. His opinion isn't officially sanctioned by the research firm.

In Rayner's "maverick" view, we'd be better off if machines made more decisions. He cited a U.K. study of 350 large companies that found executives' pay rose 700 per cent from 2002 to 2011 while the value of those businesses rose just 21 per cent and workers' pay rose 27 per cent.

"There has to be something questionable about that," he said. "Humans are very bad at making decisions."

"Everywhere I look, predictive modeling, machine-based algorithmic systems and computer-based simulations outperform humans," he added, noting that machines will play an expanding role in decision-making over the next 40 years or so.

Building those systems, though, requires humans with a mix of statistical, database and computer science skills, said Kevin Connor, an enterprise architect at Urban Science, which makes analytical systems.

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patrick thibodeau Patrick Thibodeau covers SaaS and enterprise applications, outsourcing, government IT policies, data centers and IT workforce issues for Computerworld. Follow Patrick on Twitter at @DCgov , or subscribe to Pa... more
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