IDC: ADSL will dominate Singapore broadband

ADSL (Asymmetric Digital Subscriber Line) will become the dominant broadband access technology in Singapore, said IDC.

In Singapore, the asymmetric digital subscriber line (ADSL) market has started to take off and IDC expects strong growth here as the strong competitive pricing of broadband access services will continue to lower the price for end users.

Although ADSL is currently not the preferred access technology in Singapore, IDC believes that it will ultimately become dominant in 2004. Metro Ethernet will also become a very popular technology and will cut into new subscriber growth in the latter years of the forecast. IDC believes that the peak in terms of revenue and equipment shipped will be in 2006.

In the recent report “ADSL Network and CPE (customer premises equipment) Market Forecast & Analysis, 2001-2006”, IDC estimates that by 2006, the overall ADSL equipment market will be US$963.2 million in the region. This represents a CAGR of only 1 per cent for 2001 to 2006. Of this, ADSL modem will generate revenue of $409.6 million. The report covers key Asia Pacific markets of Australia, Hong Kong, India, Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, China, Singapore and Taiwan.

For CPE, in 2006, there will be about 251,000 modems sold, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 50 per cent for the year 2001 to 2006. This will translate into revenues of almost $26 million. On the network side, revenue in 2006 will be approximately $38 million with a CAGR (2001-2006) of 47 per cent.

Although there are a variety of access technologies available in Asia Pacific, including ADSL, cable modem access, metro Ethernet and FWA, ADSL remains the preferred medium. In 2001, about 65 per cent of all broadband subscribers in the region used ADSL, with cable modem a distant second at about 32 per cent.

The equipment market is becoming increasingly competitive in the region, as domestic vendors, in particular Korea, Taiwan and China, are becoming increasingly active. It is believed that as each of these markets approaches market saturation, the domestic vendors will increasingly look for opportunities abroad, not only in Asia Pacific but also worldwide. Throughout the region, it is anticipated that ADSL equipment application service providers will continue to decline during the forecast period.